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Weak economy pushes auto sales off a cliff



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WASHINGTON, April 1, 2008 (AFP) - The troubled US economy weighed down auto sales in March as skittish consumers cut back on purchases, especially of big luxury cars and trucks, sales reports showed Tuesday.

General Motors reported a 13 percent slide from a year ago in US sales as production fell sharply due to a strike at a key supplier. Ford Motor Co. saw a 14.3 percent slide while Chrysler LLC, heavily dependent on sport utility vehicles, witnessed a 19 percent plunge.

Among the big Japanese automakers, Toyota reported a 3.4 percent drop, while Nissan sales rose 3.6 percent and Honda showed a 4.2 percent gain.

Jesse Toprak, analyst at the research firm Edmunds.com, said the modest gains for some Japanese makers were misleading, since they were in the low-cost car category that typically delivers less profit.

'We see that even Japanese automakers with smaller, gas-efficient fleets are not immune to the weakness of the market,' said Toprak.

'Car sales are linked to consumer confidence,' said Toprak.

The latest reading from the Conference Board last month showed US consumer confidence slid to a five-year low in March while a measure of expectations for the future hit the weakest level in 35 years amid a horrific housing slump that has led to massive bank losses.

Toprak said that even though home foreclosures only affect a small percentage of American households, 'they are not rushing to buy a car because they are not sure about their future.'

Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica Bank in Detroit, said the woes are not yet over for the auto sector with the US economy apparently in recession.

'We're seeing the recession undermining consumer spending in autos, so I don't view the figures as surprising,' Johnson said.

'In an environment where gasoline is extraordinarily expensive, people are motivated to conserve on driving. And one way is to delay the purchase of new cars, so I think it's going to be a rough ride for the economy and the auto sector.'

Yet Johnson and Toprak both see some light at the end of the tunnel for the auto industry, possibly by the second half of this year.

They say the 168-billion-dollar federal economic stimulus, centered on tax rebate checks for most households, will help lift consumer spirits as the housing crisis eases.

'I think we'll have an average-length recession of about 10 months that will be over by the end of the year, but there is a real risk of something worse if house prices continue to plunge,' Johnson said.

Toprak said, 'We think the negative forces that are pulling down the market in the US will continue to be there for another quarter ... but in the second half of 2008 there are a few bright points that might mitigate those factors.'

He said tax rebates may not directly spark car sales, but 'it does help consumers and help confidence in general.'

Toprak said he also sees some 'significant new product introductions that will help with volume in second half.'

He said sales so far this year are running about six percent below the levels of 2007, but will pick up a bit in the year and end with an overall decline of around four percent.

The Detroit automakers said they are positioning for the marketplace by shifting to cars consumers want and eliminating less profitable rental fleet sales.

'We are in a period where the public hears news about the economy every day and it is clearly having an impact on our industry,' said Chrysler vice chairman and president Jim Press.

'Chrysler's strategy to right-size our operations, increase fuel efficiency and reduce daily rental fleet sales will help us get through this period as a stronger company with healthier dealers.'

Jim Farley, Ford group vice president, said the company's reorganization remains on track even as the automaker shifts gears to adapt to US consumer preferences.

'This is a very challenging external environment, reflecting a seismic shift in consumer preferences,' said Farley.

'We remain focused on executing our plan, which includes being profitable at lower volume and changed mix. It is crucial we continue to employ a disciplined process to gauge demand and plan production on a segment-by-segment and region-by-region basis.'



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