IMF sees slower African growth, higher inflation



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WASHINGTON, Oct 8, 2008 (AFP) - V,P3,REMA.ANA.PAW.MAXSub-Saharan Africa will see slower growth this year and next as the region suffers from the global financial turmoil and a sharp spike in inflation pressures, the IMF said Wednesday.

The International Monetary Fund, in its biannual survey of the world economy, said growth will slip from 6.9 percent in 2007 to 6.1 percent this year but should then recover to 6.3 percent in 2009.

'The risks to the regional growth outlook are tilted to the downside and relate mainly to slower-than-expected growth in global demand and slowing capital inflows,' it said.

'Recent sharp increases in food and fuel prices pose significant challenges for price stability,' it added, seeing a jump in inflation this year to near 12 percent from seven percent in 2008.

The IMF warned that 'the impact of higher food prices on poverty is a major concern as it risks undermining past progress in this area and putting social cohesion at risk.'

Africa, for years seen as a laggard to gains elsewhere in the developing world, has done well in the past decade on the back of rising commodity prices and an overall more stable political environment.

Some of these gains could now be at risk, the IMF said, unless governments are prepared to make some difficult adjustments to get their countries through the harder times.

Several countries -- the Gambia, Ghana, Mauritania and Swaziland -- will be particularly hard hit, the IMF said, noting that oil importers will see their current account deficits grow sharply, causing problems for public finances.

It said current account deficits in oil-importing countries are expected to worsen from some five percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2007 to 5.75 percent this year and 6.25 percent in 2009.

In South Africa, the continent's economic powerhouse, the current account deficit -- a broad measure of trade and capital flows -- had soared to 7.25 percent of GDP by the second quarter and 'is of particular concern.'

In marked contrast, oil exporters in the region will see their current account surpluses rise very sharply from an average eight percent of GDP in 2007 to 13.5 percent this year before falling back to eight percent in 2009.

Against this backdrop, the 'main challenge for the region is how to respond to the large commodity price shock and the threat of slowing capital inflows,' the IMF said.

It said oil importers will need to 'adjust their monetary, fiscal and income policies.'

'Delaying the adjustment would put at risk not only macroeconomic stability but also recent achievements in improving policy and institutional frameworks, which have been largely responsible for (the region's) impressive growth performance in recent years.'



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