Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen faces mounting complications over how to revive the European Union`s beleaguered Lisbon treaty, as economic woes hit his poll ratings, an expert said Monday.
A new EU budget warning underlined the dire economic straits gripping the former Celtic Tiger economy, whose voters plunged the European Union into crisis in June by rejecting the Lisbon treaty.
In the wake of the `no` vote Cowen promised his EU counterparts he would make proposals at a December summit in Brussels on how to get out of the impasse, which leaves the 27-nation bloc in institutional limbo.
But the popularity of Cowen`s Fianna Fail party has plummeted 10 points to 26 percent in a month following an emergency budget of unpopular measures aimed at stabilising the recession-hit economy.
And, as the European Commission announced disciplinary action Monday over Dublin`s ballooning budget deficit, an expert said a rapid solution to the EU stalemate appears increasingly unlikely.
`The government is torn between what the other (EU) member states are looking for, which is an Irish road-map, and what can be delivered domestically,` Brigid Laffan of University College Dublin told AFP.
Ireland, the only EU state to hold a referendum on a treaty designed to streamline the bloc, rejected it by 53.4 percent in June, effectively leaving it in limbo since all EU countries have to ratify it.
The Sunday Business Post speculated that Cowen could give his EU counterparts a `general` commitment to attempt a second vote with reassuring declarations on abortion, neutrality and tax -- all key issues for `no` voters.
`Cowen will tell EU leaders that a ratification will not be possible before the European Parliament elections scheduled for June, which will now have to be held under the old Nice Treaty rules,` the newspaper said.
Quoting sources in Dublin and Brussels, the newspaper said Cowen will not give a formal commitment to the December Council for a vote re-run and will only hold a second referendum if he believes a `yes` vote can be secured.
The Sinn Fein party, which opposes the treaty, accused Cowen of being `adrift and out of touch` and of `farcically` choosing to leak to weekend media that he intended to re-run the referendum.
Sinn Fein Euro-MP Mary Lou McDonald said Cowen seemed intent to `sit on his hands waiting for a solution to drop out of the sky, or as it now seems until (French) President (Nicolas) Sarkozy tells him what to do.`
Another leading opponent of the treaty, the Libertas group which played a central role in the first Irish referendum defeat, has registered itself as a European party that may take the battle against the treaty throughout the bloc.
`We are looking at the possibility of establishing Libertas as a pan-European organisation party with the possibility of running candidates across many member states in the EU for the June 2009 European elections,` said chairman Declan Ganley, a wealthy businessman.
He told RTE state radio that this would provide a `proxy referendum` on the treaty for countries where no plebiscite was held.
Laffan, Jean Monnet Professor of European Politics, said that if there is to be another referendum it would not be before the autumn of 2009.
`That is a long way away. I can`t imagine that an Irish government would want to commit to a date of a referendum that is so far away. But it is also not clear to me that they necessarily will recommend a referendum this early.
`In the end this is going to come down to a political call and it is difficult to make that call this early,` he said.