Quebec Premier Jean Charest`s federalist Liberals are closing in on a majority midway through an election campaign in Canada`s mostly French-speaking province, according to a survey Wednesday.
A poll conducted by Leger Marketing for the daily Globe and Mail and the Montreal newspaper Le Devoir put the Liberals ahead of the separatist Parti Quebecois by 11 points.
The survey of 1,002 people showed the Liberals at 44 percent, up three percentage points in the past week, and the Parti Quebecois at 33 percent, down two points.
The Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ), after being unexpectedly catapulted into the role of official opposition in the last election, now trails at 15 percent.
`The most probable scenario would be a Liberal majority government,` Christian Bourque of Leger Marketing told the Globe and Mail.
But he underscored the need for the Liberals to woo more francophone support, because 80 percent of Quebec`s 125 electoral districts are made up almost exclusively of French-speaking voters, and they are predominant in another 25 districts.
Among this critical mass, the Parti Quebecois has a slight lead over the Liberals, 39 percent versus 37 percent, respectively.
`Because of the uncertainty of the francophone vote, a drop of one to three percentage points by the Liberals would put them in a minority government situation,` Bourque commented.
The survey was conducted November 14-17, with a 3.4 percent margin of error.