Europeans more influential but still divided over Georgia



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Europeans gained great influence in Georgia by negotiating the end of its August war with Russia, but five years after the `Rose Revolution` they remain divided over Tbilisi`s NATO and EU aspirations.

The French EU presidency, personified by President Nicolas Sarkozy, played a `courageous` role as mediator in the conflict, pushing for the rapid deployment of an EU mission to observe the ceasefire and launching talks between the two sides in Geneva, said Sabine Frazier of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Previously the Europeans had remained in the shadow of the strong US influence on Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

But now, with the outgoing Bush administration `out to lunch` on the issue for several months, Europe has stepped forward, she added.

Neither did the key EU role stop with the fighting. It went on to organise a donors` conference for Georgia in late October which garnered 3.4 billion euros in pledged help for the small Caucasus nation.

Europe is now `a far more important guiding light` than it was back in November 2003 when the bloodless Rose Revolution brought Saakashvili to power, according to Thomas Gomart the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

However the influence is still limited, the analysts say, with Georgia -- along with fellow ex-Soviet republic Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova -- kept at arm`s length as part of the European Union`s ambiguous `neighbourhood policy`.

This policy covers nations bordering the EU, which has made great eastward strides since 2004, though not the Balkan nations who are being lined up for full membership of the bloc.

The neighbourhood policy encourages economic reforms and democratisation through substantial economic carrots.

`But in reality it`s just a lot of window-dressing. There`s not a lot of substance,` Frazier opined.

Nicu Popescu, of the European Council on Foreign relations in London, is even more scathing saying the EU `does not keep its promises` made under the neighbourhood policy.

He cites `blockages` on issues ranging from talks with Georgia on visa facilitation, with many EU nations worried about an influx of illegal immigrants.

`Georgia well illustrates the limits, the impasse, of the neighbourhood policy, which consists of trying to exert maximum influence over other countries without responding clearly,` to their aspirations for eventual EU membership, said Gomart.

He argues that the European Union should reinvent the whole policy, regardless of what NATO decides.

Behind that thought is the existential question for Europeans of where the final geographical boundaries of their Union lay.

Closely allied with the United States and within the heart of NATO, there is some hesitancy to further deteriorate relations with Russia by marching further into Moscow`s old empire.

The August conflict in Georgia, which ended with Russia recognising the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, has left few analysts expecting to see Georgia invited to join the EU for the time being.

The EU has no clue as to where it wants relations with Georgia to be in two to three years,` Popescu argues.

The ambiguities could also impact the EU observer mission in Georgia, he added.

Prevented by Russia from entering South Ossetia or Abkhazia, the 300 unarmed ceasefire monitors will soon have `nothing to do except to patrol the pacified streets of Gori,` said Frazier.

They risk becoming a `laughing stock` among the local population, she warned.



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